CWR Playing Catch-up on ITM - So does ITM Breakout to new 2 Year Highs above 100p ?
Hydrogen-Based Renewables: Buying the Dip in a Bull Trend
The AI-driven data center (AI-DC) build-out has created an immediate, critical power-demand crisis. The market's initial "solution"—Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)—needs a reality check on at least one aspect : time to power. SMRs are a decade-long solution. AI demand is a today problem. I produced an infogrpahic summarising this theme back in JUly based on some in-depth work - see the Article Here AI Power Dilemma Infographic One Pager
This is the "reality check" that is driving the re-rating of many of the modular renewables . The market is realizing that modular, quick-to-deploy hydrogen fuel cells are an immediate viable off-grid solution that can be scaled in months, not decades.
This new, credible business case is the catalyst. The stocks aren't just rallying; they are being re-positioned as the critical bridge technology for the AI revolution.
On a purely technical basis, the renewables sector is currently one of the most bullish in the UK - that's just an objective observable based on price relative to 50 and 200MAs - see plot .That said it has suffered a catastrophic drop from its darling days back in 2020 to 2021 that saw Ceres with highs north of 1600p ( though an all time high of 3900p in 2008:) it's currently down 90% from highs. ITM is similarly down 88% from its ATH of 717p in 2021 , AFC down 89% ... you get the picture
That reinvention of this sector reflects the AI-DC narrative and the shift in sentiment form one of the most hated sectors to now one of the most promising.
The pivot is a much in the application as it is in the underlying origin story . The Trumpian vilification of anything green had all but left this sector for dead as an univestable ESG aberration. Now it has been reinvented as the go-to solution for the AI power dilemma: Forget ESG, Renewables are being rebranded and repositioned as a key AI enabler
Looking to the US: SOFC in BLOOM
Here's a chart of the US SOFC name Bloom. Energy : IN october 2024 it has a stock price of about $9 now it is north of $142 that's almost 1500% increase in price . If CWR were to pull a similar manoeuvre from its lows around 50p in April that's a 750p target - still less than 50% of its 2020 highs around 1600p.
CWR the long road back
Renewables in the Top 3 Most Bullish Sectors in the UK
(this excludes microcaps <£30m which skew disproportionately).
Leading the RIP ITM
Phase 1: The Internal Turnaround (The 1-Year View) Leader:ITM Power (+122% 1-Year)
Driver: This was the "viability" trade. The market saw ITM fix its core manufacturing (the 98% FAT pass rate) and re-rated it from "going-to-zero" to "a viable business." This was a pre-requisite for what came next.
ITM
Phase 2: The AI-Power Catalyst
Leader:Ceres Power (+165% 3-Month +530% in 6 months)
Driver: This is the thematic trade. The AI-DC narrative hit the market, and capital immediately rotated into the stock with the most direct, de-risked link to the solution.
CWR's Catalysts:
Partnership Proof: Doosan began mass production of CWR-licensed SOFCs (the "engines") specifically for the data center market (July 2025).
Market Validation: Delta Electronics is actively developing MW-scale systems for the same purpose
Power Partnerships : Nov 25 Weichai signs a manufacturing licence agreement for the production of Ceres' proprietary solid oxide fuel cell - further proof of the IP model and clear line-of-sight to revenues at scale
Analyst Capitulation: The massive, chasing upgrades from Goldman Sachs (to 480p) and UBS (to 350p) act as a lagging indicator, confirming the new thesis is now consensus.
Defining the Dip
On a tactical trading level ,we can drill in closer in timescales we find Renewables deep in the lower left quad of our sector momentum plots - but in pullback mode . This is normally a good place for dip buying - buying pullbacks in uptrends as opposed to adding to losses in downtrends.
Looking at relative momentum within the sector:
Ceres is way out in front on a 3M and 1 M basis- BUT it is actually in catch-up mode relative to ITM on a 1 year basis
Is ITM Ready to take back the Baton or Does FTSE 250 CWR Prove to be the Winner?
zooming out to 1 year / 3 months ITM is ahead of CWR prior to today on a 1 year basis - CWR is playing catch-up BUT , I expect ITM to reload and breakout above its 100p July high
I'm in both with reasonable positions although I have taken profits along the way and added back on retraces. This sector and these names especially tick so many boxes in terms of transformational opportunities. I have written a few pieces to date but will write a more in-depth analysis on why i believe these are critical to the success of the AI-DC build out and why we may be on the verge of a huge mega trend in the commercialisation at scale of novel power solutions that have been a solution looking for a problem for decades
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CWR Playing Catch-up on ITM - So does ITM Breakout to new 2 Year Highs above 100p ?
Hydrogen-Based Renewables: Buying the Dip in a Bull Trend
The AI-driven data center (AI-DC) build-out has created an immediate, critical power-demand crisis. The market's initial "solution"—Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)—needs a reality check on at least one aspect : time to power. SMRs are a decade-long solution. AI demand is a today problem. I produced an infogrpahic summarising this theme back in JUly based on some in-depth work - see the Article Here AI Power Dilemma Infographic One Pager
This is the "reality check" that is driving the re-rating of many of the modular renewables . The market is realizing that modular, quick-to-deploy hydrogen fuel cells are an immediate viable off-grid solution that can be scaled in months, not decades.
This new, credible business case is the catalyst. The stocks aren't just rallying; they are being re-positioned as the critical bridge technology for the AI revolution.
On a purely technical basis, the renewables sector is currently one of the most bullish in the UK - that's just an objective observable based on price relative to 50 and 200MAs - see plot .That said it has suffered a catastrophic drop from its darling days back in 2020 to 2021 that saw Ceres with highs north of 1600p ( though an all time high of 3900p in 2008:) it's currently down 90% from highs. ITM is similarly down 88% from its ATH of 717p in 2021 , AFC down 89% ... you get the picture
That reinvention of this sector reflects the AI-DC narrative and the shift in sentiment form one of the most hated sectors to now one of the most promising.
Looking to the US: SOFC in BLOOM
Here's a chart of the US SOFC name Bloom. Energy : IN october 2024 it has a stock price of about $9 now it is north of $142 that's almost 1500% increase in price . If CWR were to pull a similar manoeuvre from its lows around 50p in April that's a 750p target - still less than 50% of its 2020 highs around 1600p.
CWR the long road back
Renewables in the Top 3 Most Bullish Sectors in the UK
(this excludes microcaps <£30m which skew disproportionately).
Leading the RIP ITM
Phase 1: The Internal Turnaround (The 1-Year View) Leader: ITM Power (+122% 1-Year)
Driver: This was the "viability" trade. The market saw ITM fix its core manufacturing (the 98% FAT pass rate) and re-rated it from "going-to-zero" to "a viable business." This was a pre-requisite for what came next.
ITM
Phase 2: The AI-Power Catalyst
Analyst Capitulation: The massive, chasing upgrades from Goldman Sachs (to 480p) and UBS (to 350p) act as a lagging indicator, confirming the new thesis is now consensus.
Defining the Dip
On a tactical trading level ,we can drill in closer in timescales we find Renewables deep in the lower left quad of our sector momentum plots - but in pullback mode . This is normally a good place for dip buying - buying pullbacks in uptrends as opposed to adding to losses in downtrends.
Looking at relative momentum within the sector:
Ceres is way out in front on a 3M and 1 M basis- BUT it is actually in catch-up mode relative to ITM on a 1 year basis
Is ITM Ready to take back the Baton or Does FTSE 250 CWR Prove to be the Winner?
zooming out to 1 year / 3 months ITM is ahead of CWR prior to today on a 1 year basis - CWR is playing catch-up BUT , I expect ITM to reload and breakout above its 100p July high
I'm in both with reasonable positions although I have taken profits along the way and added back on retraces. This sector and these names especially tick so many boxes in terms of transformational opportunities. I have written a few pieces to date but will write a more in-depth analysis on why i believe these are critical to the success of the AI-DC build out and why we may be on the verge of a huge mega trend in the commercialisation at scale of novel power solutions that have been a solution looking for a problem for decades