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Weekly Wrap 14-24: Sun 7/4/24

Runprofits Weekly Newsletter Week 14 2024

 

A Look Through the Indices

Typically, April is a positive month for  equities, in the past 10 years in UK markets just two Aprils have closed negative-  both of which are after very significant rallies in the preceding months. That said April started with more of a whimper than a bang this week, albeit it was a four-day week post Easter and so relatively low in volume and  earnings reports for UK equities. The US NFP job numbers on Friday did catalyse a relief rally in US stocks which had  been selling with the S&P 500 closing below its 21EMA for the first time in 2024 – see US weekly heatmap

The plot of the global indices in commodities below shows the Chinese Hang Seng being the only index in green over the past week with the UK indices outperforming the rest of the world . The Japanese Nikkei closed down minus 3.4%.

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Global Indices, Commodities and Currencies

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US Weekly Stock Heatmap

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Weekly UK Index Changes

Strong oil dented the more inflation sensitive sectors and impacted the FTSE250 most as all 3 major UK indices showed softness this week. The AIM All-Share outperformed the mid caps as basic resource names outperformed driven by strength in the metals and crude oil.

UK Indices Technicals for Week 14

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Dollar and Commodities : Unstoppable Gold, Silver Lining, Brent breakout

In last week’s email I highlighted how silver continued to underperform gold, not so this week as silver added 10.4% , Gold made yet new all-time highs as a brief dip on the US NFP data got bought propelling the yellow stuff to close the week at a new high which is very bullish

Copper remains strong as China begins to recover making a new 52 week high this week and propelling may of the mining names to new 52 week highs

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Brent oil also made new 2024 highs broke out of the rising channel adding +4 .5% on the week and  closing just shy of $91 a barrel. I had highlighted this channel  in last week’s Wrap and had expected a rally though not to this extent Tensions in the middle east are likely drivers which may make this prone to some pullbacks on improving geopolitical news. 42 Oil and Gas names advanced on the week to 47 fallers with mega cap names like Shell gaining 6.4% on the week, This sector should continue to perform if oil stays elevated while Travel and Airlines are likely to weaken.

Brent Crude Breaks Out of Channel to a 7 Month High

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Copper at a 52 Week High

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Sectors This Week

Sector summary is show below 11 risers to 35 fallers with 582 stocks  rising to 756  fallings on the week . The green concentrated in Precious Metal Miners, Industrial Miners, Banks and Leisure Goods . renewable Energy which tends to negatively correlate to strong oil movements was one of the worst performers with Home Builders and Insurance also selling as yields firmed and strong oil signals potential inflation

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UK Weekly Stock Heatmap

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Outperformers on the Week - MCAPs> £40m

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Underperformers on the Week MCAPs >£40m

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Trends and trades

A series of videos that walk you through a few of the ways to  identify trends and aligned trades using the Runprofits top-down tools like the heatmaps, sector momentum and sector rotations is now available

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Earnings Calendar Week 14 2024 w/c Mon 25 March

Quiet week ahead in earnings as just 16 UK companies report including Bango, Microlise , Tesco and IQE

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