The weekly plot of global indices and commodities is shown below China led the main indices this week up 2.3 % while copper gained over 6%. These two events are linked as China remains the biggest global consumer of copper consuming over 52% of global copper volume. The FTSE100 making it the second-best performing index globally this week benefitting from a pop in resource names on the back of firmer commodities.

 Both Japan and the US saw a bit of selling this week – a hotter CPI Wed and PPI data Thursday contributed to this .

 Many of the US Tech names that have recently been on a rip saw pullbacks especially among the semis which saw the likes of AMD down almost 8% on the week. Nvidia, which is the hottest stock on the planet, closed the week almost flat and below its 8EMA for the first time since February into a major AI Developers conference next week  (see heatmap). That both the 2 year and the 10 year US Treasuries were among the out performers on the week should be a cause for some concern for equities in the coming week which features UK inflation Wednesday am , an FOMC rate decision meeting Wed evening with a BoE rate meeting Thursday .

Global Indices, Commodities and Currencies

US Weekly Stock Heatmap



Weekly UK Index Changes

The  mega cap  FTSE 100 was the UK’s outperforming index this week which touched on an 11 month high on Wednesday before retreating back to the 5 EMA. This was led by resource names with Antofagasta, the copper miner, rallying 10% while Glencore added 6% -- continued strength in Banks and Insurance helped lift the index with Admiral adding 7%

The mid cap  FTSE 250 and the small cap AIM  All- share close the week relatively unchanged and remain in sideways consolidation modes

Dollar and Commodities : Copper Breaking Good : Gold holds: Dollar Strengthens into a big Macro Week

In last week’s wrap I highlighted copper's chart set-up and how a boost in China's index should help lift both the metal and the base metal miners. This played out over the past week with copper rallying 6% and the likes of Antofagasta, the Chilean copper miner , up 10% on the week with Glencore up 6%

……Assuming we see continued dollar weakness and some strength in the Chinese bourse then copper may well continue this breakout. If that is the case then it should be bullish the base metal miners and the wider commodities complex.

We also saw continued strength in the precious metals as silver, palladium and platinum had a good week in green. By contrast, both uranium and iron ore had a particularly bad week: the latter being down over 13% on the week. This resulted in selling in a number of the related UK names including Yellow Cake , the second most traded AIM name down 6% on the week (see UK Most Traded ).Having traded this in the past with excellent profits, I'll be looking to get long again assuming uranium finds support.



Dollar Index rallies to 21EMA resistance

The dollar is starting to show some strength into the FOMC meeting next week where the path to lower rates will be in focus: any further strength will dent the commodities rally and may cause gold to pullback further. It is currently consolidating around the 5EMA at $2156 in wait-and-see mode . UK, Japan inflation, rate decisions and PPIs next week will inform direction -see calendar.

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Copper breaks out to 11 month highs



Brent oil is attempting a breakout following almost two months of sideways movement in a range between $80 and $83, breaking out on Wednesday following the EIA inventories to breach the $85 level on Thursday. There is some channel line resistance around this level so the 85 to $86 area is one to watch in the coming week. Should oil continue north , this is clearly bullish the oil and gas names but also bearish travel and potentially retail as it’s a good proxy for inflation

Brent Crude  finally makes the break after 2 months consolidation to $85



Sectors This Week

Sector summary is show below 17 risers to 29 fallers with 558 stocks advancing on the week while 750 declined and 361 were unch

many of the biggest gains were in junior miners with 12 making double digits gains led by Neo Metals and Armadale +49% and 45% though overall the sector saw 37 risers to 56 fallers as weak iron ore and uranium weighed . A&D continues to outperform with 7 risers to 3 fallers



A&D, Banks , Tobacco and Insurance lead as Renewables, Pharm Lag



Oil and Gas Names On the Move as Brent Holds $85

Precious Metal Miners Advancing as Gold, Silver, Platinum Advance



Trades This Week



GMS Gulf marine Services – highlighted here +22.5% on the week (+15% on my entry of 0.179p) following an update on contract value with a strongly trending chart

AFC highlighted Monday here at 17.4p closed the week at 20p gaining 15% on Friday alone



Wed  Highlighted Keyword Studios  which opened up +5.8% but rallied almost 20% intraday before rejecting its 200/50DMAs around 1550p and selling back to close just +.2% on the day – it has over 3% short interest which may explain the price action.

It is also the most traded AIM share. Darktrace showed a similar price behaviour last week  before going on to rally 32% from 380p to 500p in 4 sessions as shorts decreased from 2.3% to 1.4%  - see chart. Given short interest I held off taking a position but have it on watch for next week for a potential reload

Darktrace pops on results then drops only to rally 32% as shorts cover

DARK Shorts cover following results - see Shorts Reports on Runprofits.

  Closed HOC at 110p for almost 21% profits on disappointing results Wed  – while it sold -off almost 7% on the day, it has rallied back though I was concerned of a double top around the 114-116p level which may see selling

THS +12% on the week , I put a trade on at 50.4p  highlighted here

CAML highlighted Thursday +6% Friday

Earnings Calendar Week 12 2024 w/c Mon 18 March

91 names set to report in the coming week - screen grab below and link to the online interactive calendar

8 Oil & Gas Names SENX DEC SCIR UOG TTE ENOG GKP ITH

8 software names TIG EYE TRST CCC IQG

Miners ATYM KMR CEY

Open the RP Earnings Calendar