PM Price Action 15:00
some paring of gains in the indices into the afternoon which is likely profit taking in many of the double digit pops over the past few days : tomorrow is the end of month and a four day Jubilee holiday will likely make for thin trading volumes
There are a few themes emerging
- 1.:Small caps are starting to play catch up as AIM clears the 21EMA intraday with some of the most hated and the most shorted sectors and shares making significant (>5% intraday) gains. Meanwhile the mega cap FTSE 100 is sideways below the 7600 level mainly owing to AAF -6.5% with BATS, IMB and AZN lagging: IAG, OCDO, JD are all up >3%
- 2. Travel, Leisure and Retail are all making a comeback and are potentially picking up on sentiment with the recent Sunak giveback but also the anticipation of feelgood and spend from the 4 day holiday weekend ahead
- 3. digital advertising seeing some recovery with XLM, ZOO and TRMR p >3%
- 4. Miners PAF, HZM and ALL rallying >3%
Here are some quant fundamental and technical comparators for the above groups
Opening Price Reactions and AM Liquidity 08:15
Fairly broad rally after the open with retail and heavily shorted names continuing to cover , AIM was expected to pop given the NAZ rally into Friday's close and is up 1%, 250 up 1.1%
IQE, highlighted Thursday 26th with entry 29.4 up another 5.6% this am clearing 100 DMA and in day 4 of a vol squeeze : these tend to run 5-7 days in supporting markets. Given this is almost 20% gain on entry price, took a further 25% off at 34.85 to leave remainder run at reduced risk [stock_market_widget type="inline" template="generic" assets="IQE.L" markup="{name} ({symbol}) {price} ({change_pct}){last_update}" style="font-size: small" api="yf"]
BOO looks to be in a short squeeze with shorts closing from a high of 6.8% recently to 6% now: may well reach for 100p if volume kicks in +7% intraday at 100DMA and some resistance around 91p
RNS Analysis Potential pops
SFOR strong results beating estimates and guiding higher
PDL continued consolidation in uptrend looks set for a breakout
IMI vol squeeze : proposed acquisition may be a catalyst for breakout
Pre Market Analysis 06:30
US rallied strongly into the close on Friday lifting the indices above 21EMAs across the board with the NASDAQ +3.3% all on good volume, this should feed through to AIM which is underperforming mid and mega caps. Dr Copper saying "yes" to the rally so far : gold, silver and PGMs improving as USD weakens. Today is a holiday in the US. Oil is up, Gold >$1860 retesting 21EMA: FTSE 100 futures +30 on Friday close. Today is likely to be quiet given lack of US liquidity though some catching up is needed on recent rally
- - Brent crude continues slow grid higher at $116 but encountering O/H supply from March highs: key European decision on Russian imports this am
- - VIX drops to 25 with VSTOXX at 24 which is the most bullish in weeks - see dashboard
- - DXY- dollar index - drops to 101 and looks likely to may check 100 level: this is bullish stocks
- - Gold remains indeterminate around the 21EMA level ($1859) which is showing resistance: if DXY stays weak, Gold should rally but watch for a break above the $1862 with some conviction. Continued hestinance around the 1861 level is prone to failure
- - PGMs and base metals showing signs of improvement which will feed through to UK miners : silver looks set to break north and is potential long
Charts - click to open to full size
