ACE Week Ahead 29 Sep 25 V2

Week Ahead Catalyst Report

Date: September 26, 2025 | Generated by AI Engine v3.1

Catalyst Summary

Bullish Catalysts (Score > 5.0)

Boku Inc: +8.53

The final score of 8.53 reflects a solid bullish case. Strong fundamentals (Buy consensus, 23% upside) are confirmed by a positive technical picture (Bull Score 4.56, MACD buy signal). While expectations are somewhat elevated, they are not at an extreme, allowing the positive fundamental and technical scores to dominate, resulting in a medium conviction positive score.

Devolver Digital Inc: +5.75

The final score of 5.75 indicates a moderately bullish outlook. Solid fundamentals (Buy rating, 22% upside) and a positive technical trend (MACD buy) are the key drivers. However, the score is tempered by the stock being technically overbought (RSI > 70), which introduces some caution and caps the conviction at Medium.

Greggs: +8.14

The final score of 8.14 is primarily driven by a significant QCM adjustment for short squeeze potential. While the fundamental (Hold) and technical pictures are neutral, the high short interest (5.01%) and days to cover (10) create a powerful technical setup where any positive news could be amplified. This specific factor turns a neutral baseline into a medium conviction positive score.

Animalcare Group: +13.86

The final score of 13.86 is a high conviction positive rating. This is driven by a powerful combination of factors: strong fundamentals (Outperform, 22% upside), a positive technical score with a bullish MACD cross, and low expectations (negative score) which creates significant room for a positive surprise. All three core components align for a bullish outcome.

AG Barr: +6.86

The final score of 6.86 indicates a moderately positive outlook. The primary driver is the strong fundamental score, based on a 'Buy' consensus and analyst expectations of market-beating growth. This is tempered by a negative technical score, preventing a higher conviction rating. The low expectations provide a solid foundation for a positive reaction to news.

JD Wetherspoon: +8.00

The final score of 8.00 reflects a positive setup driven by mean reversion potential. While the fundamental and technical scores are neutral to slightly negative, the low expectations score creates an asymmetric risk/reward. The market appears to have priced in a pessimistic outlook, providing significant upside potential on any news that is simply 'in line' or 'not as bad as feared'.

EJF Investments: +10.60

The final score of 10.60 is a high conviction positive rating. The analysis shows a strong alignment across all factors: a positive fundamental score from the 'Buy' consensus and upside, a strong technical score confirming the uptrend, and neutral expectations. This confluence of positive signals results in a high conviction score.

Niox Group: +6.02

The final score of 6.02 indicates a moderately bullish outlook. The positive fundamental score, derived from the 'Buy' consensus and target upside, is well-supported by a positive technical picture. With expectations at a neutral level, the path of least resistance appears to be upwards, leading to a medium conviction rating.

Aeorema Communications: +5.80

The final score of 5.80 reflects a positive but overextended situation. The technical score is very strong, driven by clear upward momentum. However, this has led to elevated expectations and an extremely overbought RSI reading, which results in a -2 technical adjustment. The final score is positive but capped at a medium conviction due to the risk of a near-term pullback.

Blackbird: +9.41

The final score of 9.41 is driven by a significant QCM adjustment for low expectations. The underlying technical picture is weak. However, the expectations score is extremely low (-5.35), triggering a +5 QCM adjustment for mean reversion potential. This suggests the stock is priced for very bad news, creating a high potential for a positive surprise on its recent positive operational updates.

Northcoders Group: +10.44

The final score of 10.44 is a high conviction positive score based on extreme mean reversion potential. The technical picture is dire, but expectations are at rock bottom (score of -7.81), triggering a +5 QCM adjustment. This indicates a deeply oversold stock with recent positive newsflow, a classic setup for a sharp relief rally as the narrative conflicts with the deeply pessimistic price.

Futura Medical: +17.89

The final score of 17.89 is a high-conviction, contrarian signal driven entirely by extreme mean reversion potential. The fundamental picture is negative due to a revenue warning, and the technicals are extremely weak. However, expectations are at rock-bottom (-23.89), creating a scenario where the stock is priced for disaster, offering significant upside on any news that is less negative than feared.

Tissue Regenix Group: +7.60

The final score of 7.60 is driven by significant mean reversion potential. The technical picture is extremely weak and the stock is deeply oversold. This has created a very low expectations score, triggering a +5 QCM adjustment. The model suggests that while the trend is negative, the pessimism is so high that the risk/reward is skewed to the upside on any neutral or positive news.

Ebiquity: +9.06

The final score of 9.06 is a medium conviction, contrarian 'buy' signal. The positive fundamental score is currently overshadowed by a very weak technical picture. However, the stock is deeply oversold, leading to a very low expectations score. This creates a powerful mean reversion potential, suggesting the negative sentiment is overdone and the stock is primed for a relief rally.

Jadestone Energy: +12.31

The final score of 12.31 is a high conviction positive rating. This is driven by a perfect fundamental score based on a 'Buy' consensus and significant upside. While the technical picture is currently neutral to negative, the low expectations provide a solid foundation, allowing the powerful fundamental story to dominate the final score.

Strix Group: +12.98

The final score of 12.98 is a high conviction positive rating. The analysis shows a strong alignment between a perfect fundamental score (Buy, >50% upside) and a positive technical picture (Bull score > 0, MACD buy). With expectations at a neutral level, the strong underlying drivers point towards a high probability of a positive outcome.

James Halstead: +12.41

The final score of 12.41 is a high conviction positive rating. The strong fundamental score ('Outperform', >50% upside) is supported by positive technical momentum from the recent MACD buy signal. With market expectations being entirely neutral, the fundamental strength is the dominant factor, leading to a high conviction score.

Avation: +10.54

The final score of 10.54 is a high conviction positive rating. This is driven by a perfect fundamental score from the 'Buy' consensus and significant upside. This is supported by a neutral-to-positive technical picture and neutral market expectations. The strong fundamental value case is the primary driver of the high conviction score.

Next 15 Group: +11.63

The final score of 11.63 is a high conviction positive rating. The perfect fundamental score, based on a 'Buy' rating and significant upside, is the primary driver. This is supported by a positive technical score reflecting strong recent momentum. Despite some negative newsflow, the quantitative factors align for a bullish outlook.

Topps Tiles: +13.46

The final score of 13.46 is a high conviction positive rating. This is a classic case of fundamentals conflicting with technicals. The fundamental score is strong ('Outperform', >35% upside), and expectations are low. This creates a powerful positive baseline that overcomes the currently weak technical picture, suggesting the fundamentals are likely to drive the price higher.

Card Factory: +8.00

The final score of 8.00 reflects a solid bullish case. A perfect fundamental score is supported by a positive technical trend. The score is moderated slightly by somewhat elevated expectations, but the overall picture is one of strength across the board, leading to a medium conviction positive rating.

HSS Hire Group plc: +5.95

The final score of 5.95 indicates a moderately positive outlook. The 'Buy' consensus provides a strong fundamental score which is supported by a positive technical baseline. This is tempered by elevated expectations, which reduces the final score and caps the conviction at Medium. The negative company-specific newsflow is a key risk.

Big Technologies: +13.66

The final score of 13.66 is a high conviction, contrarian positive signal. The fundamental score is strong ('Outperform', >29% upside), but the technicals are very weak. The key driver is the low expectations score, suggesting that a large amount of negative news is already priced in. This creates a strong mean reversion potential where the solid fundamentals could reassert themselves.

Neutral Catalysts

Carnival & Corp: +0.82

The final score of 0.82 reflects a balanced but slightly positive outlook. Strong fundamentals, including a 'Buy' consensus and raised guidance, are offset by a weak technical picture with a bearish MACD signal. The conviction is low as the positive fundamental story is not currently being confirmed by the price action.

Tesco: +1.65

The final score of 1.65 suggests a neutral outlook where risks are balanced. The positive fundamental story from a 'Buy' consensus is being counteracted by a negative technical signal from the MACD. Furthermore, elevated expectations reduce the potential for a positive surprise, resulting in a low conviction, neutral score.

Dunedin Income Growth IT: +2.04

The final score of 2.04 indicates a potential for mean reversion. The fundamental score is neutral, and the technical picture is negative. However, the negative expectations score suggests that significant pessimism is already priced in. This creates a scenario where the absence of further bad news could be enough to cause a modest rebound, leading to a low conviction positive score.

Huddled Group: +4.73

The final score of 4.73 is based on mean reversion potential. With no fundamental score and a negative technical picture, the key driver is the low expectations score. This suggests that negative sentiment is already high, creating an opportunity for a positive surprise or a relief rally on any non-negative news. The conviction is low due to the poor underlying technicals.

Airea: +4.87

The final score of 4.87 is driven by a combination of a positive technical signal (MACD buy) and low market expectations. While there is no fundamental score and the long-term trend is weak, the oversold conditions and negative sentiment create a setup for a potential relief rally. Conviction is low given the lack of fundamental support.

Malvern International: +4.96

The final score of 4.96 is a pure mean-reversion play. The technical score is extremely weak, but the stock is deeply oversold (RSI < 30), which provides a +2 technical adjustment. Combined with low expectations, this creates a scenario where the potential for further downside may be limited, and a technical bounce is possible. Conviction is low as this is not based on any fundamental strength.

Physiomics: -1.81

The final score of -1.81 indicates a neutral to slightly negative outlook. The positive MACD signal is not enough to overcome the negative long-term trend indicated by the price being below the 200-day SMA. With neutral expectations, the weak technical baseline score dominates, resulting in a low conviction negative score.

Novacyt SA: +3.91

The final score of 3.91 is a low conviction positive rating. The score is primarily driven by the bullish MACD crossover and the low expectations priced into the stock. This suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but the underlying negative long-term trend (below 200-day SMA) and mixed newsflow prevent a higher conviction rating.

GENinCode: -4.09

The final score of -4.09 reflects a situation where a strong technical picture is completely negated by extremely high expectations. The stock is technically strong but severely overbought (RSI > 70), leading to a high expectations score. This triggers a significant negative adjustment for mean reversion and a QCM penalty, suggesting the stock is vulnerable to a 'sell the news' event.

Litigation Capital Management: +1.40

The final score of 1.40 indicates a neutral outlook where opposing forces are balanced. The technical picture is very weak. However, this is offset by a very low expectations score, which provides a strong positive contribution from mean reversion potential and a +5 QCM adjustment. This creates a low conviction, neutral score, suggesting the potential for a bounce is balanced by the poor technical trend.

Surgical Innovations Group: +3.38

The final score of 3.38 reflects a positive fundamental view being heavily tempered by an extreme technical reading. The 'Buy' consensus provides a solid fundamental score. However, the stock is exceptionally overbought (RSI 100), creating a high expectations score and significant negative pressure from mean reversion. This results in a low conviction, slightly positive score.

Close Brothers Group: -2.80

The final score of -2.80 reflects a situation where positive factors are being negated by high expectations. The fundamental and technical scores are both positive. However, the high expectations score creates a significant negative drag from mean reversion potential and a QCM penalty. This suggests that despite recent strength, the stock is vulnerable to disappointment, resulting in a low conviction negative score.

Full Company Analysis

Avacta Group

AVCT
Final Score
-11.30
Conviction
High
Expectations Score
10.61

The final score of -11.30 reflects a significant conflict. While fundamentals show broker optimism and upside, this is completely negated by extremely high expectations (score > 10) and a negative technical picture (MACD sell signal). The model suggests the high expectations create a significant risk of a 'sell the news' event, leading to a high conviction negative score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Avacta is scheduled to release earnings on September 29, 2025. Analysts forecast a significant upside of over 42%, though the company is expected to remain unprofitable. Recent newsflow has been positive, with strong technical momentum and rising volume.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: -0.48). The stock is trading just above its 200-day SMA with a neutral RSI (57.8), but a bearish MACD signal indicates potential weakness.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
57.8 RSI
-0.48 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+3.79%
21-day
+4.47%
50-day
+11.00%
200-day
+32.60%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
226.6
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
+27.92%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
7.79
Technical Score
-3.48
Expectations Score
10.61
ACE Scoring
-5
Final Baseline Score
-11.30

Boku Inc

BOKU
Final Score
+8.53
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
4.24

The final score of 8.53 reflects a solid bullish case. Strong fundamentals (Buy consensus, 23% upside) are confirmed by a positive technical picture (Bull Score 4.56, MACD buy signal). While expectations are somewhat elevated, they are not at an extreme, allowing the positive fundamental and technical scores to dominate, resulting in a medium conviction positive score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Software and Computer Services sector has faced a challenging environment in 2025 due to delayed or cancelled orders. Despite this, the UK remains a top destination for tech investment in Europe. No specific company news was found.

Technical Posture

Technically positive (Score: 4.56). The stock is in a clear uptrend, trading above all key moving averages with a positive MACD cross and a strong RSI (64.4), indicating solid momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
64.4 RSI
4.56 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+3.40%
21-day
+4.80%
50-day
+4.59%
200-day
+23.90%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
688.4
Fwd P/E
35.5
Broker Upside
+23.43%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
7.34
Technical Score
7.56
Expectations Score
4.24
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+8.53

Devolver Digital Inc

DEVO
Final Score
+5.75
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
4.74

The final score of 5.75 indicates a moderately bullish outlook. Solid fundamentals (Buy rating, 22% upside) and a positive technical trend (MACD buy) are the key drivers. However, the score is tempered by the stock being technically overbought (RSI > 70), which introduces some caution and caps the conviction at Medium.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Software and Computer Services sector has faced a challenging environment in 2025 due to delayed or cancelled orders. Despite this, the UK remains a top destination for tech investment in Europe. No specific company news was found.

Technical Posture

Technically positive (Score: 2.20). The stock is technically overbought with an RSI of 70.5, suggesting a potential near-term pullback, but the underlying trend is positive with a bullish MACD cross.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
70.5 RSI
2.2 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+2.86%
21-day
+7.47%
50-day
+12.90%
200-day
+19.00%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
122.7
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
+22.86%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
7.29
Technical Score
3.2
Expectations Score
4.74
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+5.75

Greggs

GRG
Final Score
+8.14
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
-0.67

The final score of 8.14 is primarily driven by a significant QCM adjustment for short squeeze potential. While the fundamental (Hold) and technical pictures are neutral, the high short interest (5.01%) and days to cover (10) create a powerful technical setup where any positive news could be amplified. This specific factor turns a neutral baseline into a medium conviction positive score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Personal Care, Drug and Grocery Stores sector is expected to see continued growth in online sales in 2025. However, the sector also faces challenges from a slowdown in consumer spending and rising inflation. No specific company news was found.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: -0.77). The stock is trading below its 200-day SMA with a neutral RSI (51.9), but a bullish MACD crossover has just occurred, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
51.9 RSI
-0.77 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+2.42%
21-day
+1.21%
50-day
-0.71%
200-day
-17.40%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
1625.3
Fwd P/E
12.7
Broker Upside
+22.75%
Short Interest
5.01%
Days to Cover
10
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
2.28
Technical Score
2.23
Expectations Score
-0.67
ACE Scoring
5
Final Baseline Score
+8.14

Animalcare Group

ANCR
Final Score
+13.86
Conviction
High
Expectations Score
-2.11

The final score of 13.86 is a high conviction positive rating. This is driven by a powerful combination of factors: strong fundamentals (Outperform, 22% upside), a positive technical score with a bullish MACD cross, and low expectations (negative score) which creates significant room for a positive surprise. All three core components align for a bullish outcome.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Analysts have a positive outlook, with a median price target suggesting a 32% increase from the last price. Revenue is forecast to grow faster than the UK market average. The broader Pharmaceuticals sector has a mixed outlook for 2025.

Technical Posture

Technically positive (Score: 1.49). The stock is approaching oversold territory with an RSI of 33.1, but a bullish MACD crossover suggests potential upward momentum is building.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
33.1 RSI
1.49 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.01%
21-day
-1.14%
50-day
-4.59%
200-day
-0.55%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
172.5
Fwd P/E
17.6
Broker Upside
+22.60%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
7.26
Technical Score
4.49
Expectations Score
-2.11
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+13.86

Carnival & Corp

CCL
Final Score
+0.82
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
2.1

The final score of 0.82 reflects a balanced but slightly positive outlook. Strong fundamentals, including a 'Buy' consensus and raised guidance, are offset by a weak technical picture with a bearish MACD signal. The conviction is low as the positive fundamental story is not currently being confirmed by the price action.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Analysts are bullish with a consensus 'Buy' rating and expect strong Q3 earnings on September 29th. The company has raised its full-year guidance. However, there is also notable bearish activity in the options market, suggesting some investors are hedging against a potential downturn.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: -0.04). The stock is trading above its 200-day SMA with a neutral RSI (46.7), but a bearish MACD signal indicates a potential loss of upward momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
46.7 RSI
-0.04 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.87%
21-day
-1.38%
50-day
-0.64%
200-day
+17.60%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
26,961.0
Fwd P/E
13.4
Broker Upside
+10.70%
Short Interest
0.69%
Days to Cover
19
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
5.07
Technical Score
-2.04
Expectations Score
2.1
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+0.82

AG Barr

BAG
Final Score
+6.86
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
-0.45

The final score of 6.86 indicates a moderately positive outlook. The primary driver is the strong fundamental score, based on a 'Buy' consensus and analyst expectations of market-beating growth. This is tempered by a negative technical score, preventing a higher conviction rating. The low expectations provide a solid foundation for a positive reaction to news.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Analysts have a positive 'Buy' rating, forecasting earnings and revenue growth to outpace the UK market. The stock is trading near its 52-week high, but its RSI suggests it is approaching oversold territory, which could present a buying opportunity.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: -1.12). The stock is trading near its key moving averages with a neutral RSI (44.2), but a bearish MACD signal suggests a potential loss of momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
44.2 RSI
-1.12 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.13%
21-day
-0.90%
50-day
-1.73%
200-day
+3.41%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
755.3
Fwd P/E
15.5
Broker Upside
+10.30%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
6.03
Technical Score
-2.12
Expectations Score
-0.45
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+6.86

JD Wetherspoon

JDW
Final Score
+8.00
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
-1.49

The final score of 8.00 reflects a positive setup driven by mean reversion potential. While the fundamental and technical scores are neutral to slightly negative, the low expectations score creates an asymmetric risk/reward. The market appears to have priced in a pessimistic outlook, providing significant upside potential on any news that is simply 'in line' or 'not as bad as feared'.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The company expects profits to be in line with market expectations after a 5.1% increase in like-for-like sales. However, analysts have a mixed 'Hold' or 'Reduce' rating, with earnings forecast to grow slower than the UK market average.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: -0.10). The stock is trading just above its 200-day SMA with a neutral RSI (43.8), but a bearish MACD signal points to weakening momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
43.8 RSI
-0.1 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.45%
21-day
-1.54%
50-day
-5.28%
200-day
+2.27%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
718.9
Fwd P/E
13.7
Broker Upside
+10.03%
Short Interest
1.23%
Days to Cover
9
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
6
Technical Score
-2.1
Expectations Score
-1.49
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+8.00

EJF Investments

EJFI
Final Score
+10.60
Conviction
High
Expectations Score
0.71

The final score of 10.60 is a high conviction positive rating. The analysis shows a strong alignment across all factors: a positive fundamental score from the 'Buy' consensus and upside, a strong technical score confirming the uptrend, and neutral expectations. This confluence of positive signals results in a high conviction score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

One analyst has a 12-month price target representing a 12.30% upside. The company became profitable this year and has outperformed its industry over the past year. The broader Investment Banking sector faces a mixed outlook for 2025.

Technical Posture

Technically strong (Score: 5.36). The stock is in a clear uptrend, trading above all key moving averages with a bullish MACD cross and a strong RSI (67.8), indicating robust positive momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
67.8 RSI
5.36 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+0.18%
21-day
+0.83%
50-day
+2.18%
200-day
+3.43%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
75.8
Fwd P/E
5.6
Broker Upside
+9.49%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
5.95
Technical Score
5.36
Expectations Score
0.71
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+10.60

Niox Group

NIOX
Final Score
+6.02
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
1.41

The final score of 6.02 indicates a moderately bullish outlook. The positive fundamental score, derived from the 'Buy' consensus and target upside, is well-supported by a positive technical picture. With expectations at a neutral level, the path of least resistance appears to be upwards, leading to a medium conviction rating.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK's Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology sector has a mixed outlook for 2025, having experienced some underperformance. No specific analyst expectations or recent newsflow were found for Niox Group.

Technical Posture

Technically positive (Score: 0.58). The stock is trading above its 200-day SMA with a bullish MACD cross and a strengthening RSI (56.1), suggesting a positive trend is in place.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
56.1 RSI
0.58 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+0.25%
21-day
+1.07%
50-day
+3.06%
200-day
+10.20%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
305.8
Fwd P/E
27.5
Broker Upside
+8.50%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
5.85
Technical Score
2.58
Expectations Score
1.41
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+6.02

Tesco

TSCO
Final Score
+1.65
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
2.8

The final score of 1.65 suggests a neutral outlook where risks are balanced. The positive fundamental story from a 'Buy' consensus is being counteracted by a negative technical signal from the MACD. Furthermore, elevated expectations reduce the potential for a positive surprise, resulting in a low conviction, neutral score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Analysts are bullish with a consensus 'Buy' rating, citing strong operational performance and market expansion as key growth drivers. Peer J Sainsbury also reported strong grocery sales, indicating a stable competitive environment.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: 1.47). The stock is in a strong uptrend, trading well above its 200-day SMA with a high RSI (61.0), but a bearish MACD signal warns of potential momentum loss.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
61 RSI
1.47 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+1.18%
21-day
+1.71%
50-day
+3.27%
200-day
+14.30%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
28,591.5
Fwd P/E
16.1
Broker Upside
+2.13%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
5.21
Technical Score
-1.53
Expectations Score
2.8
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+1.65

Dunedin Income Growth IT

DIG
Final Score
+2.04
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1.26

The final score of 2.04 indicates a potential for mean reversion. The fundamental score is neutral, and the technical picture is negative. However, the negative expectations score suggests that significant pessimism is already priced in. This creates a scenario where the absence of further bad news could be enough to cause a modest rebound, leading to a low conviction positive score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Closed End Investments sector has faced a challenging period, with discounts widening to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. This has been driven by rising interest rates and risk-off sentiment among investors.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -0.78). The stock is trading below all key moving averages with a bearish MACD signal and a weak RSI (37.1), indicating a clear downtrend.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
37.1 RSI
-0.78 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.73%
21-day
-1.61%
50-day
-2.95%
200-day
-0.82%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
355.8
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-0.78
Expectations Score
-1.26
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+2.04

Huddled Group

HUD
Final Score
+4.73
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1.48

The final score of 4.73 is based on mean reversion potential. With no fundamental score and a negative technical picture, the key driver is the low expectations score. This suggests that negative sentiment is already high, creating an opportunity for a positive surprise or a relief rally on any non-negative news. The conviction is low due to the poor underlying technicals.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Electronic and Electrical Equipment sector has faced significant headwinds in 2025, with a high percentage of companies issuing profit warnings. However, there is some optimism among retail investors for the latter half of the year.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -3.25). The stock is trading below its key moving averages with a weak RSI (39.3) and a bearish MACD signal, indicating a clear negative trend.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
39.3 RSI
-3.25 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-1.05%
21-day
-4.45%
50-day
-7.00%
200-day
-5.40%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
11.9
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-3.25
Expectations Score
-1.48
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+4.73

Airea

AIEA
Final Score
+4.87
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1.81

The final score of 4.87 is driven by a combination of a positive technical signal (MACD buy) and low market expectations. While there is no fundamental score and the long-term trend is weak, the oversold conditions and negative sentiment create a setup for a potential relief rally. Conviction is low given the lack of fundamental support.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Household Goods and Home Construction sector faces a mixed outlook for 2025. While there are signs of recovery in the housing market, the sector is also grappling with challenges such as rising material costs and a shortage of skilled labor.

Technical Posture

Technically positive (Score: 1.06). The stock is trading below its 200-day SMA, but a bullish MACD cross and an RSI reading near oversold levels (23.8) suggest potential for a bounce.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
23.8 RSI
1.06 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.03%
21-day
-0.67%
50-day
-2.21%
200-day
-7.50%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
8.9
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
3.06
Expectations Score
-1.81
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+4.87

Malvern International

MLVN
Final Score
+4.96
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1

The final score of 4.96 is a pure mean-reversion play. The technical score is extremely weak, but the stock is deeply oversold (RSI < 30), which provides a +2 technical adjustment. Combined with low expectations, this creates a scenario where the potential for further downside may be limited, and a technical bounce is possible. Conviction is low as this is not based on any fundamental strength.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Industrial Support Services sector has faced significant challenges in 2025, issuing the highest number of profit warnings of any FTSE sector in the second quarter due to broader economic uncertainty.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -6.96). The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading below its key moving averages with a bearish MACD signal and a weak RSI (27.8), indicating it is oversold.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
27.8 RSI
-6.96 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.66%
21-day
-1.82%
50-day
-2.71%
200-day
-13.80%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
4.0
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-3.96
Expectations Score
-1
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+4.96

Tesco

TSCO
Final Score
+1.65
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
2.8

The final score of 1.65 suggests a neutral outlook where risks are balanced. The positive fundamental story from a 'Buy' consensus is being counteracted by a negative technical signal from the MACD. Furthermore, elevated expectations reduce the potential for a positive surprise, resulting in a low conviction, neutral score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Analysts are bullish with a consensus 'Buy' rating, citing strong operational performance and market expansion as key growth drivers. Peer J Sainsbury also reported strong grocery sales, indicating a stable competitive environment.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: 1.47). The stock is in a strong uptrend, trading well above its 200-day SMA with a high RSI (61.0), but a bearish MACD signal warns of potential momentum loss.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
61 RSI
1.47 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+1.18%
21-day
+1.71%
50-day
+3.27%
200-day
+14.30%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
28,591.5
Fwd P/E
16.1
Broker Upside
+2.13%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
5.21
Technical Score
-1.53
Expectations Score
2.8
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+1.65

Dunedin Income Growth IT

DIG
Final Score
+2.04
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1.26

The final score of 2.04 indicates a potential for mean reversion. The fundamental score is neutral, and the technical picture is negative. However, the negative expectations score suggests that significant pessimism is already priced in. This creates a scenario where the absence of further bad news could be enough to cause a modest rebound, leading to a low conviction positive score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Closed End Investments sector has faced a challenging period, with discounts widening to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. This has been driven by rising interest rates and risk-off sentiment among investors.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -0.78). The stock is trading below all key moving averages with a bearish MACD signal and a weak RSI (37.1), indicating a clear downtrend.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
37.1 RSI
-0.78 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.73%
21-day
-1.61%
50-day
-2.95%
200-day
-0.82%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
355.8
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-0.78
Expectations Score
-1.26
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+2.04

Huddled Group

HUD
Final Score
+4.73
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1.48

The final score of 4.73 is based on mean reversion potential. With no fundamental score and a negative technical picture, the key driver is the low expectations score. This suggests that negative sentiment is already high, creating an opportunity for a positive surprise or a relief rally on any non-negative news. The conviction is low due to the poor underlying technicals.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Electronic and Electrical Equipment sector has faced significant headwinds in 2025, with a high percentage of companies issuing profit warnings. However, there is some optimism among retail investors for the latter half of the year.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -3.25). The stock is trading below its key moving averages with a weak RSI (39.3) and a bearish MACD signal, indicating a clear negative trend.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
39.3 RSI
-3.25 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-1.05%
21-day
-4.45%
50-day
-7.00%
200-day
-5.40%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
11.9
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-3.25
Expectations Score
-1.48
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+4.73

Airea

AIEA
Final Score
+4.87
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1.81

The final score of 4.87 is driven by a combination of a positive technical signal (MACD buy) and low market expectations. While there is no fundamental score and the long-term trend is weak, the oversold conditions and negative sentiment create a setup for a potential relief rally. Conviction is low given the lack of fundamental support.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Household Goods and Home Construction sector faces a mixed outlook for 2025. While there are signs of recovery in the housing market, the sector is also grappling with challenges such as rising material costs and a shortage of skilled labor.

Technical Posture

Technically positive (Score: 1.06). The stock is trading below its 200-day SMA, but a bullish MACD cross and an RSI reading near oversold levels (23.8) suggest potential for a bounce.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
23.8 RSI
1.06 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.03%
21-day
-0.67%
50-day
-2.21%
200-day
-7.50%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
8.9
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
3.06
Expectations Score
-1.81
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+4.87

Malvern International

MLVN
Final Score
+4.96
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-1

The final score of 4.96 is a pure mean-reversion play. The technical score is extremely weak, but the stock is deeply oversold (RSI < 30), which provides a +2 technical adjustment. Combined with low expectations, this creates a scenario where the potential for further downside may be limited, and a technical bounce is possible. Conviction is low as this is not based on any fundamental strength.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The UK Industrial Support Services sector has faced significant challenges in 2025, issuing the highest number of profit warnings of any FTSE sector in the second quarter due to broader economic uncertainty.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -6.96). The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading below its key moving averages with a bearish MACD signal and a weak RSI (27.8), indicating it is oversold.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
27.8 RSI
-6.96 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.66%
21-day
-1.82%
50-day
-2.71%
200-day
-13.80%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
4.0
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-3.96
Expectations Score
-1
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+4.96

Aeorema Communications

AEO
Final Score
+5.80
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
2.41

The final score of 5.80 reflects a positive but overextended situation. The technical score is very strong, driven by clear upward momentum. However, this has led to elevated expectations and an extremely overbought RSI reading, which results in a -2 technical adjustment. The final score is positive but capped at a medium conviction due to the risk of a near-term pullback.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Recent news has been positive, with the company reporting strong financial results and a positive outlook, leading to the stock reaching a 52-week high in September 2025. The broader UK media industry outlook for 2025 is varied.

Technical Posture

Technically strong (Score: 5.21). The stock is in a powerful uptrend, trading above all key moving averages with a bullish MACD cross and a very high RSI (83.2), indicating it is extremely overbought.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
83.2 RSI
5.21 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+1.01%
21-day
+1.78%
50-day
+1.69%
200-day
+12.70%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
5.4
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
8.21
Expectations Score
2.41
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
+5.80

Physiomics

PYC
Final Score
-1.81
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
0.74

The final score of -1.81 indicates a neutral to slightly negative outlook. The positive MACD signal is not enough to overcome the negative long-term trend indicated by the price being below the 200-day SMA. With neutral expectations, the weak technical baseline score dominates, resulting in a low conviction negative score.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Recent news has been positive, with the company reporting strong revenue growth and a healthy order book, leading to the stock reaching a new 52-week high in September 2025. The Medical Equipment sector faces some headwinds from US investigations.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -2.07). The stock is trading below its 200-day SMA with a neutral RSI (53.8), but a bullish MACD crossover suggests a potential for upward momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
53.8 RSI
-2.07 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.98%
21-day
+1.70%
50-day
+5.54%
200-day
-11.00%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
1.5
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-1.07
Expectations Score
0.74
ACE Scoring
0
Final Baseline Score
-1.81

Novacyt SA

NCYT
Final Score
+3.91
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-0.76

The final score of 3.91 is a low conviction positive rating. The score is primarily driven by the bullish MACD crossover and the low expectations priced into the stock. This suggests a potential for a short-term bounce, but the underlying negative long-term trend (below 200-day SMA) and mixed newsflow prevent a higher conviction rating.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Recent news has been mixed. The company reported a decline in revenue for H1 2025 but maintained its full-year guidance. The stock has been volatile, with active discussion on investor forums reflecting a range of opinions on the company's outlook.

Technical Posture

Technically neutral (Score: 0.15). The stock is trading below its 200-day SMA with a neutral RSI (49.0), but a bullish MACD crossover suggests a potential shift in momentum.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
49 RSI
0.15 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-0.26%
21-day
-0.26%
50-day
-0.41%
200-day
-11.30%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
28.6
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
N/A
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
3.15
Expectations Score
-0.76
ACE Scoring
0

Futura Medical

FUM
Final Score
+17.89
Conviction
High
Expectations Score
-23.89

The final score of 17.89 is a high-conviction, contrarian signal driven entirely by extreme mean reversion potential. The fundamental picture is negative due to a revenue warning, and the technicals are extremely weak. However, expectations are at rock-bottom (-23.89), creating a scenario where the stock is priced for disaster, offering significant upside on any news that is less negative than feared.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Futura has issued a material revenue warning for 2025 due to slower-than-expected sales, is exploring restructuring, and faces negative investor sentiment. This follows previous analyst upgrades in 2024, creating a significant disconnect.

Technical Posture

Technically extremely weak (Score: -20.00). The stock is in a severe downtrend, trading far below its 200-day SMA. It is deeply oversold with an RSI of 18, though a bearish MACD signal remains in place.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
18 RSI
-20 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-35.16%
21-day
-53.34%
50-day
-65.80%
200-day
-76.10%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
10.0
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
+95.89%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
10
Technical Score
-21
Expectations Score
-23.89
ACE Scoring
5
Final Baseline Score
+17.89

GENinCode

GENI
Final Score
-4.09
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
14.53

The final score of -4.09 reflects a situation where a strong technical picture is completely negated by extremely high expectations. The stock is technically strong but severely overbought (RSI > 70), leading to a high expectations score. This triggers a significant negative adjustment for mean reversion and a QCM penalty, suggesting the stock is vulnerable to a 'sell the news' event.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

GENinCode reaffirmed its guidance, showing 15% H1 revenue growth and progress with the FDA. Peer performance is strong, though the broader medical equipment sector faces some headwinds. Investor sentiment is positive ahead of interim results.

Technical Posture

Technically strong (Score: 15.44). The stock is extremely overbought with an RSI of 73.9, indicating a high risk of a near-term pullback, but the underlying trend is strongly positive with a bullish MACD cross.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
73.9 RSI
15.44 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
+9.42%
21-day
+42.70%
50-day
+112.00%
200-day
+62.90%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
12.3
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
+78.50%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
15.44
Expectations Score
14.53
ACE Scoring
-5
Final Baseline Score
-4.09

Tissue Regenix Group

TRX
Final Score
+7.60
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
-10.27

The final score of 7.60 is driven by significant mean reversion potential. The technical picture is extremely weak and the stock is deeply oversold. This has created a very low expectations score, triggering a +5 QCM adjustment. The model suggests that while the trend is negative, the pessimism is so high that the risk/reward is skewed to the upside on any neutral or positive news.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The company has delayed its interim results, causing concern among some investors. While optimistic about regulatory approvals in 2025, the immediate sentiment is cautious due to the reporting delay.

Technical Posture

Technically extremely weak (Score: -5.67). The stock is in a severe downtrend, trading far below its 200-day SMA. It is deeply oversold with an RSI of 14.3, and the MACD signal is bearish.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
14.3 RSI
-5.67 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-5.33%
21-day
-12.59%
50-day
-25.40%
200-day
-43.60%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
15.7
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
+74.12%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-7.67
Expectations Score
-10.27
ACE Scoring
5
Final Baseline Score
+7.60

Litigation Capital Management

LIT
Final Score
+1.40
Conviction
Low
Expectations Score
-8.73

The final score of 1.40 indicates a neutral outlook where opposing forces are balanced. The technical picture is very weak. However, this is offset by a very low expectations score, which provides a strong positive contribution from mean reversion potential and a +5 QCM adjustment. This creates a low conviction, neutral score, suggesting the potential for a bounce is balanced by the poor technical trend.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

The company has a 'Buy' rating from analysts with significant upside potential, but has not had research coverage in 90 days. The broader financials sector has been strong, but LCM is scheduled to report results on October 1st.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -10.33). The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading significantly below its 200-day SMA. It is approaching oversold territory with an RSI of 32.3, and the MACD signal is bearish.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
32.3 RSI
-10.33 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-6.31%
21-day
-14.58%
50-day
-17.10%
200-day
-50.00%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
28.7
Fwd P/E
N/A
Broker Upside
+73.17%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
0
Technical Score
-12.33
Expectations Score
-8.73
ACE Scoring
5
Final Baseline Score
+1.40

Ebiquity

EBQ
Final Score
+9.06
Conviction
Medium
Expectations Score
-9.07

The final score of 9.06 is a medium conviction, contrarian 'buy' signal. The positive fundamental score is currently overshadowed by a very weak technical picture. However, the stock is deeply oversold, leading to a very low expectations score. This creates a powerful mean reversion potential, suggesting the negative sentiment is overdone and the stock is primed for a relief rally.

Analysis

Pre-Catalyst Narrative

Analysts have mixed views, with one forecasting a revenue decline while another projects strong earnings growth. The stock has retreated 30% in the last month. The company's Q1 trading was slightly ahead of expectations.

Technical Posture

Technically weak (Score: -7.01). The stock is in a clear downtrend, trading significantly below its 200-day SMA. It is deeply oversold with an RSI of 3.11, and the MACD signal is bearish.

Key Metrics

INDICATORS
3.11 RSI
-7.01 Bull Score
PRICE RELATIVE TO MOVING AVERAGES
8-day
-10.65%
21-day
-20.06%
50-day
-29.70%
200-day
-36.10%
FUNDAMENTALS & RISK
Mkt Cap (£m)
19.8
Fwd P/E
7.0
Broker Upside
+73.11%
Short Interest
N/A%
Days to Cover
N/A
SCORE BREAKDOWN
Fundamental Score
7
Technical Score
-12.01
Expectations Score
-9.07
ACE Scoring
5
Final Baseline Score
+9.06
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