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Sector Deep Dive 

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Sector Deep Dive 

UK markets closed flat to positive with the 6700 support level or the UKX and the 3700 for the NMX holding despite being tested 6 times in the past 12 trading sessions. Today's price action in the UKX saw the formation of a hammer pattern on high volume which is often a bullish reversal pattern.

AIM 100 also spent a day mildly in the green having sold-off almost 37% from its 2018 highs

Both the MCIX and TASX continued to sell

Brent lost another 1.2% while all of the metals sold-off. Next week sees limited market hours with a half-day Monday and closed Tuesday and Wed

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Sector Deep Dive 

Fed’s Powell failed to give the cheer the markets were clearly demanding: the US markets staged a dramatic reversal in price as the US Fed set out interest rate plans. The US indices changed for a day in the green to a day deep in the red probing new yearly lows and setting off tremors that carried to Asia overnight and then the European markets.  This despite the relatively dovish nature of Powell’s announcement and the data-led approach the Fed intends to take. Such is the nature of sentiment when rational response is often swamped by irrational overreaction.  The final truth is price and all prices currently seem to be trending lower.

The UKX and NMX retested 2018 lows again today but rallied off the lows: for now 6700 in the UKX and 3700 in the NMX seem to form solid support. AIM100 sold off another 1.1% making new lows since early 2017.  The MCIX lost 0.9% and is at levels not sincc just after the 2016 referendum

Oil dropped a further almost 3% while GBP gained 0.4% on USD

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Sector Deep Dive 

Some cheer and a little green broke out across the blood strewn UK indices as a minor relief rally resulted from a test of the UKX and NMX lows. These seem to have held for now and both indices managed a 1% rise today.  The MCIX only manged 0.6% while the AIM100 gained 0.9%.  The tech heavy TASX also gained 0.9%. Below the waterline, Mining, Pharm and O&G producers did much of the lifting all gaining between 1 and 2%. Gen Retail and Tobacco were the worst performers down 0.5%.

In the US, minutes from the Fed meeting this evening may prove critical for any nascent rally: more dovish language may provide a much needed catalyst to raise sentiments and support a multi-day rally.

Oil staged a minor recovery up 2.8% to $57, gold rallied 0.3%, copper 2.2% with silver up over 1%. GBP was flat against USD on the day just shy of $1.27

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Sector Deep Dive 

Superlatives evaporate as these markets continue in their downward spiral: today saw another 1.1% taken off the UKX and NMX bringing them within a shade of the 2018 lows. Warnings from the UK Government on hard Brexit preparation added to the woeful sentiment in these markets.  Given the US is also selling heavily and given tomorrow is the last Fed Meeting of 2018, there may be some reprieve for these markets if the US Fed softens language on rate hikes. While AIM 100 also joined the NMX and UKX in losing over 1%, the MCIX rose over 0.6% as some buying started to appear in names like INDV (+17%), GLO (+8.5%), IPO (+6%) with many share rising more than 5%.

Oil took a dive today down over 4% on the day to $56 causing the O&G sector to lose over 2%: Mining was off 1% Pharm down 1.5%. Retail staged a slight recovery gaining over 1%

GBP showed sign of recovering against USD peaking above $1.27 before returning to the $1.265 level but up 0.3% on the day. Sentiment  metrics showed the FTSE VIX rising to 21, the US VIX to 25 and the Fear Index dropping to 7 - Extreme Fear. This time last year the Fear Index was at 74 - Greed, a more traditional measure for the Santa rally.

In other commodities, gold rose almost 0.3%, copper dropped over 3% while iron ores rose 0.5%

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Sector Deep Dive 

The brutality of selling in these markets was further evidenced today as ASC gave a profit warning and fell almost 50% at its lowest: given its market cap of 3.5Bn, this pulled the AIM100 and AIM All-Share down with it causing collateral damage across the online retailers with BOO losing 15% JOUL, 8%, QUIZ -18%. AIM 100 lost 4.2% today in the main owing to BOO and ASC.

Both the larger indices were down over 1% as UKX and NMX were dragged lower by Banks (-1.5%), Pharm (-1.5%) Gen Retail -3.8% and F&D Retail -2.3%. Only Mining, +1.5% was in the green today

MCIX probed new lows losing over 1.5% as DNLM lost almost 11%, JD over 7%. The extent and nature of recent losses and the huge falls in growth and retail stocks are strongly suggestive that the UK may already be in recession and that Brexit is more than a spectre and is a reality for many UK consumers. In this bout of extreme pessimism there is likely to be many overreactions and overselling but even the hardiest of long-term investors will be feeling a lot of pain in the recent two months of selling.

Sentiment scores are measuring some extremes with CNNs fear index at 6 out of 100, AAII at its most bearish in years with almost 50% of investors bearish compared to 30% as the historical averages. The FTSE VIX jumped 13% today but still remains below 20 and significantly below the high of 24 in Jan 18 and over 32 in July 16.

GBP held solid today at $1.26 while Brent sold-off 0.7% and dropped below the $60 level. Gold and silver rallied while copper was flat and iron ore up almost 1% on the day.

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Sector Deep Dive 

Another day in the red with GBP leg lower by 0.7% as PM May finds deaf ears in Brussels.   While all the UK indices were festooned in red, there were fewer sharp declines today in both sectors and stocks.  Despite weakness in GBP, Mining was down over 1.3% weighed upon by poorer than expected retail and industrial data from China signifying slowing growth.  The UKX and NMX indices closed down 0.5% but UKX stays north of 7800 which is providing interim support.

The MCIX lost another 1% but closed off its lows for the day and north of the recent yearly lows.  Volume has also diminished significantly which may be encouraging if selling pressure is decreasing. Irrespective, there is no denying the bearishness of these markets which have remained in a downward trend since May ’18. AIM100 lost only 0.2% and does appear to be forming a broader bottom on the daily charts as volatility and price range contract. These are often prequels to major moves. Given the speed and extent of the recent falls, we favour a move to the upside but cannot rule out another leg lower.  It is difficult to imagine more moribund catalysts than the markets have suffered in the past few weeks so a good excuse to rally seems more likely.  We still advocate two closes above the 21EMA to satisfy an interim change in trend. To date none of the UK indices are even above their 8EMAs and only the TASX is close (closing flat on the day). Sectors in the green today included Tech Hardware, T&L, Food Producers and Pharm with all of the rest in the red

There is no seasonal cheer in evidence from the US which is also in corrective mode and continues to sell today with all major markets down around 1.5%

Oil is testing the $60 down 2.5%, gold is down 0.2%, copper -0.4% while iron ore is up 1%. In sentiment, the VFTSE remains stubbornly  below 20 as does the VSTOXX suggesting that limited downside protection is being sought. The US AAII weekly sentiment

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Sector Deep Dive 

Today was a relatively flat day following yesterday’s buying the rumour of May’s survival, GBP remains unchanged on the day but still below the $1.26 level. The US markets overnight did stage a reversal in what is becoming a consistent theme of selling rallies rather than buying dips. Today saw the UKX close flat, the MCIX sell-off almost 1% dragged lower by multiple ex-dividends but also large drops in big caps like SPD (-15%), IPO (-10%) and multiple 5% plus losses.

AIM 100 closed flat while TASX lost just 0.5%.

In sectors, Mining continued to rally on weak sterling while Pharm, F&D Retail, Utilities and Electricity all caught a bid from defensive buying.

Gen Retail lost over 2% on more woeful results from SPD, BON with REITs also selling off. Tobacco lost 1% while FS, A&D and O&G Producers were all negative on the day

Brent rallied 0.6% while gold and silver sold-off. In base metals, copper was slightly positive on the day while iron ore rallied another 0.7%

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Yesterday’s green shoots gave way to some wholesome buds across UK markets after weeks of moribund price action.   It may well be that May’s expected survival of a vote of no confidence will end latent uncertainty on Brexit talks and could even pave the way towards a deal of some form. Sterling seems to be indicating this as it rose over 1.4% on rumours that PM May will survive her leadership challenge this evening.  While the UKX and NMX were up 1.3 and 1.1%, it is the MCIX that posted the most favourable rise today up over 2% as faith in the fate of domestic UK companies took some cheer.  Housebuilders like BKG +6%, BDEV +4.8%, MLSH +10% were clearly back in vogue

Sectors up more than 2% included Banks, Mining, Support Services, A&D, FS.

SBRY dropped over 6% on concerns over the Asada merger while WG. dropped 10% on results. These took their sectors into the red.

Brent rallied almost 0.9%, gold was up 0.2% while silver rallied over 1.3% with copper and iron ore relatively flat on the day. If May does lose her vote tonight this could all change as maximum uncertainty is the converse outcome. Watch GBP/USD as the new worry barometer.

Finally on sentiment, the UK VIX dropped a further 5% as did both the EU and US VIX fear indices. At pixel the US markets are up around 2% across the board. For now, it would seem safe to get back in the water, but with an eye to the shore.

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Strong employment data bolstered sterling this am which briefly rallied to rise above $1.26 levels: this quickly evaporated and GBP then turned negative on the day down almost 0.3% at pixel and hovering around the $1.25 level. Weak sterling did cheer the UKX and NMX which both gained over 1.2% on the day.  While any green day is welcome in these days of sequential reds, today’s rallies were sold-off their highs.  The MCIX gained less than 1% while AIM100 was up a paltry 0.2% but may be forming a reversal pattern.

In sectors, Mining staged a comeback today on the back of weak sterling up 3%: Construction also recovered over 3% while O&G services gained 4%. Other outperforming sectors included Support Services, Media, Personal Goods, A&D Utilities all up over 1%. Among under-performers were banks, Gen Retail, Tobacco all up around 0.4%: only REITS and Auto Parts were negative on the day.

Best performing shares in the UKX were AAL, WG. And WPP all up around 5%. In the MCIX, INDV staged an 11% recovery while NRR, SPI and CC were all up around 5%. In the AIM 100, AMER, PRSM and SAA were all up around 9-10%

Brent crude is up almost 1% above the $60 mark while gold was flat with copper up almost 1.5% and iron ore 0.4%.

In terms of sentiment, the FTSE VIX has eased back over 12% today to drop below 20 in a signal that fears may be easing.  The EU STOXX remains above 20 as does the US Vix though that too has dropped over 10%.

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May’s capitulation on the meaningful vote delivered a gut shot to GBP which fell through long standing support at 1.2670 to drop over 1.7% at its lowest, probing levels not seen since April 2017. Despite this weakness, the normal corresponding strength in the UKX did not appear as negative sentiment pervades.  However, the FTSE100 lost only 0.8% today compared to 2.3% in the MCIX and 1.4% in AIM1. TASX was down 0.6%. The MCIX lost support at 18500 and is now down over 26% from its highs this year at over two-year lows.

Today saw large drops in the housing stock with the Sector down almost 4% : BDEV lost 5.5%, GFRD down 8%. REITs dropped over 3% as did O&G Equipment.  Banks, Mining and O&G producers were all down over 1%. The only shades of green were in Tobacco (+2%) Pharm (+1%) and Beverages (+0.5%)

Brent is off over 0.8% while gold and silver lost 0.2%: copper and iron ore are down over 1%. At pixel, the US opened lower but is recovering down over 1% across the major indices with the exception of the NASDAQ which is attempting a rally

On a sentiment note, levels of bearishness from the CNN Fear Index at 9 (Extreme Fear), CBOE VIX at 25 and UK and EU VIX score above 22 suggest that many are now positioned defensively which is often the precursor to a relief rally. This would need a catalyst which could take the form of a break though in Brexit talks or a development on the US-China trade spat.

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Today saw a much overdue rally as UK markets climbed off the floor rallying hard in the am bolstered by a strong up-thrust in crude oil price following the OPEC meeting.  The major catalyst for the rally was the dramatic reversal in US markets late in yesterday’s session which saw a roller-coaster ride of prices with the DJI reversing an 800-point drop to close almost flat. Many have taken this as a leading indicator of a bottom and the start of a Santa rally. However, the enthusiasm of the UK rally faded as the US opened cautious and then proceeded to sell-off today: if yesterday was truly the bottom then a follow-through today would be expected. That it is faded suggests that some players are selling rallies to de-risk.

The UK day ended with  UKX and NMX  up over 1%, AIM1 up 1% but the MCIX managing only 0.5%. TASX was flat on the day. None of the indices cam even near to closing above their 8 EMAs let alone 21EMAs. We take two consecutive closes above these moving averages to indicate a change in trend.  On this basis we remain cautious and favour short or neutral positions.

Today sector performances were led by Oil and Gas as Brent gained over 4%. Mining and Personal Good also rallied 2-2.5% while many of the top 10 sectors by market cap were up 0.5% or more.

Gold is continuing to rally supporting the risk-off sentiment while the UK and EU VIX sentiment ratings increased 6-8% to quarter highs as traders take downside protection.  GBP sold-off 0.4% against USD . In the base metals, copper and iron ore rallied given support to miners

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Another day of blood in the streets as selling reaches feverish levels: today’s moves in the UKX, MCIX and AIM were the largest single day moves since the Brexit referendum in 2016. That is appropriate given the vote on the withdrawal agreement is days away. That said, after the referendum in 2016 the UKX was at 5600, today it closed at 6704.  Today did see a stemming in volume even as selling increased: typically, a capitulative end to a correction occurs with an increase in volume. Either we have overshot rational levels or there is still a crescendo to come. It is clear that volatility is well and truly back which is a key characteristic of bear markets.

In terms of where each index sits: the UKX is 18% off its recent high. The MCIX  is 24% off the 2018 highs in June in the fastest sell-off that has occurred since the great financial crisis in 2008.  The AIM  All-Share is down 19.8% from the summer 18 highs but often corrects even deeper than this : in 2011 it cratered 48% between February and October. AIM 100  has fared worse and is down over 22%. A correction greater than 20% is a bear market.

Every sector got thoroughly whacked today although some were punished more than others. Utilities, REITS, Tobacco and Comms fared the least bad as given their defensive nature. They were still down in the region of 1-2%.  The most damaged sectors were Life Insurance -6%, O&G -4.5%, Financial Services, -4.2% Mining -4%: the list goes on. There is no cheer in the sea of red.

Oil has taken a battering, down over 3.5%,  even as OPEC are meeting so the market may well be front-running tomorrow’s announcement on production levels. Gold is up only 0.3% on the day as dollar remains strong and is acting as a safe haven.  Still GBP fared relatively well today against USD so markets may be less pessimistic on the Brexit outcome next week…assuming there are any

Sentiment has turned more negative with the FTSE VIX at 23, the Euro VX at 25 and the CBOE VIX up to 29, a jump of over 30%.

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Today’s selling was a continuation of a sharp move down by all of the US markets yesterday on fears over yield curve inversion and lingering trade tariff fears. Asia continued the selling and the UK’s underlying political uncertainty and Brexit fears added to market woes. The result was UKX and NMX down 1.5% and 1.3% respectively.

The MCIX was positive for most of the day bolstered by sharp reversal of fortunes for TCG which rallied over 50% on news that a right issue was not needed to fund operations.  SGC rallied over 15% further helping the index.

AIM1 closed down 1.3% with much of this due to bigger cap losers like PRSM, BOO, ACSO all down 5% or more.

Almost all sectors were in the red today with Mining down 2.5% and Life Insurance, O&G, Pharm and Support Services all down over 1.7% accounting for almost 40% of the index by cap. Rallies from the likes of PSN, BKG, and BDEV (up 5-7%) helped to curb some of the damage to the UKX.

Today was a national day of mourning in the US with markets closed: given the extreme bearishness in all UK indices, more selling looks likely in the coming days with the hope of a Santa Rally becoming slimmer. That said, many markets are deeply oversold and due a relief rally. The MCIX probed a new low today below the 19000 level and found some support.  This would narrowly avoid a technical bear market from a 20% drop from 2018 highs.  AIM1 has of today dropped more that 20% from 2018 highs and can be considered officially in a bear market.

Oil’s rally of 1.8% did little to settle nerves while copper and iron ore rallied on the day. GBP closed up against USD by 0.3%.

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One general rule of thumb for a change in trend in a market is two consecutive closes above the 8 and 21 EMAs: none of the UK indices with the exception of the TASX has managed two closes above these moving averages since the end of Sep 2018.  Today saw the resumption of selling across markets with the MCIX exploring new lows for 2018 down -1.4%.   The UKX and NMX gave back most of yesterday’s gains closing down 0.6% while AIM suffered the most down -2.3%.  The TASX which has been resilient also lost 0.9%

In sectors, Construction was down 3.7% despite a better than expected PMI for Construction this am. O&G Services reversed most of yesterday’s gains down 3.1%. Almost all sectors were in the red today with the exception of the more defensive Fixed Line Comms (+1.5%), Beverages and Personal Goods (+0.8%).

US markets have also given back yesterday’s gains and are selling off heavily at pixel with the S&P down over 2%.  GBP has weakened against USD down 0/2% at pixel while Brent is flat on the day. In commodities, gold and silver has rallied while copper is down over 1% while iron ore has gained 2%

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Trump’s ceasefire with Xi at the G20 gave cheer to markets as it put a halt on increased tariffs and may open routes to a deal on trade balances. Asia reacted strongly overnight to the good news. Europe opened very strong with the UKX, NMX up over 2% at one stage.  These rallies did pare back as the trading session went on with over half of the gains returned by the close. The UKX and NMX closed up 1.1% while the MCIX gained a meagre 0.3% : AIM1 did well up 1.2%. TASX completely reversed fortunes on the day moving from a rally of over 1% to a loss of 0.4%.

Technically, the NMX resolutely tested and rejected its 50DMA which has been resistance since August:  it seems likely that only a successful Brexit outcome will provide the momentum to break clear of this overhead. Both the NMX and UKX did close above their 21EMAs which is encouraging. TCG cratered another 22% today which along with KIE (-12%) , TED (-15% and STOB (-12%) took the wind out of the MCIX sails and leaves it languishing near 2 year lows and below all MAs. AIM1 has grabbed and held its 8EMA in a tentative recovery

Today’s biggest gainers were the miners up 4.5% in another helter-skelter move that has characterised basic resources over the past few months. Oil also gained over 3% today on news of supply limitations by OPEC. This boosted the O&G sector up 2.4% and the Oil Services sector up over 5%.  T&L was up 1 % and Support Services up 2%

Underperforming sectors included Pharm -2.5% dragged down by GSK’s news of a take-over of Tesaro: this after a an almost 10% rally on news of divestment to ULVR of their consumer goods businesses including Horlicks, Many of the recently strong performing indices also sold-off as risk appetite improved. Telecomm -2%, Electricity -1.2%

Gold rallied 1.4% to $1239: copper was up another 0.8% with all the base metals rallying further fuelling the resources rally today. GBP closed flat against USD.

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The seesaw price action of rally then sell, rally then sell continues. Despite this, the major UK indices are not probing new lows but are consolidating in a sideways manner.  The overall trend is still very much downwards and the UKX’s inability to hold its 21EMA for two consecutive closes is ominous as is its close below the 7000 level today which has become talismanic of late. The UKX, NMX and MCIX all fell 0.8-0.9% today on good volume. AIM1 suffered less losing just 0.4% while the TASX continues in its own trajectory and remains overall bullish in this sea of red. The  FTSE VIX rose almost 9% to 18, a level not seen since mid-November (see Market Sentiment)

In the MCIX, KIE collapsed 32% today, given this is the most shorted share in the UK with over 13% open interest, this was arguably on the cards (see Short Interest).  TCG lost an additional 11% on broke downgrades   and suggestions of funding needed. Mirroring TCG woes, TUI lost another 7% today denting the UKX.

Of the 39 sectors only 8 showed any green today and only 3 of those were in the top 20 by market capital: Pharm gained 0.5% while Mobile also gained 0.5%. In the loser’s camp Banks lost 1.2%, Mining 1.8%, Household Home Construction down another 2%: Construction and material was deepest in the red down almost 4% owing to KIE which had knock-on effects on other sector peers.

Oil was flat on the day around the $59 level while GBP was relatively unchanged against USD. In metals gold sold-off to the $1220 level which copper continued to catch a bid up 0.3% while iron ore gained almost 1%.

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Another day with a fading rally that saw both the UKX and NMX briefly rally comfortably above the 21EMAs before selling back and closing mid on the day’s price range though up 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. Importantly, the UKX did manage to close just north of the 21EMA for the first time since the start of Nov. It is clear that the spectre of Brexit is spooking UK investors. That said, the UKX does offer many multi-national companies which are GBP denominated but are under exposed to the domestic market. In the event of a disorderly Brexit and weakness in the pound, these large caps will rally accordingly and therefore offer a self-hedging margin of safety.

By contrast the more domestic focused MCIX sold-off another 0.3% today and was the worst performing of all the UK markets: INTU collapsed by 41%, TCG lost almost 7% on poor results and HMSO lost 7.6% as the other REITs fell.

AIM gained 0.3% today while the TASX continues to outperform up 0.6%

Outperforming sectors today were Mining +2.1%, O&G Produces +0.7% , Tobacco +1%  while REITS lost -5%, Household &Home Construction a further 0.5% .

Brent rallied over 2% but remains below $60: GBP pulled-back below the $1.28 level and metals all sold-off except gold

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The UK markets spent much of the day churning as Brexit continued to weigh on sentiment: the Chancellor and BoE both produced forecasts on the potential impacts of Brexit outcomes all of which affect the UK economy to varying degrees of negativity. The reality that the best EU deal is the current one is the backdrop to these analyses and many Brexiteer dispute the veracity of the forecasts.  In terms of reaction, May’s roadshow to support her negotiated alternative to a hard Brexit seems to be giving some cheer as GBP rallied against USD and is up 0.7% on the day : this has become a barometer of sentiment on the outcome of these talks which still remain grim on an historical basis but less grim than recently.

At the close, UKX, NMX and MCIX were all off  0.2%: the AIM 100 rallied an additional 0.6% while TASX gained 0.6%.

In sectors, household Goods/Construction (-2.8%), A&D (-1.3) and T&L (-1.5%)  all underperformed as the housebuilders in particular lost ground with PSN, BVS and TW all down around 5%.

Sectors catching a bid included Software, Mining and Pharm.

Brent had another day of selling-off as inventory levels were higher than expected ,losing -1.6% on the day .

Gold rallied almost 1% while copper gained over 3% with iron ore selling-off down almost 12% on the day.

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Oil took another dive today falling over 5% and impacting the UKX and NMX via O&G Producers which lost 3.3%. However, the indices recovered somewhat in the last hour of trading and closed relatively flat on the day with UK and NMX down 0.1%: MCIX unchanged and TASX up almost 1%. AIM1 closed down 0.2% having recovered off its intraday lows: the selling in AIM stocks has been relentless of late

In sectors, Mobile and Tobacco gained 2% and 2.8% respectively with many sectors up over 1% on the day

What would have been a relatively green day was dragged down by resources with both O&G and Mining down by over 3%.

GBP closed down 0.6% against USD and all metals sold-ff on the day which impacted the Mining sector. The steep fall-offs in oil and resource stocks seem to be presaging a global slowdown or at least the impact of trade tariffs.

At pixel the US indices are in the red on a short and relatively light trading day following Thanksgiving

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Yesterday’s rally was short-lived as today brought more selling and the giveback of almost all of Wednesday’s gains for the major indices:  the UKX and NMX lost 1.2% in a reciprocal response to GBP’s gain of 0.8% against USD. It is Thanksgiving in the US so markets are lacking in a major source of liquidity.  The MCIX held more solidly by losing just 0.14% and AIM and the TASX lost 0.7%.

In sectors, all of the major NMX sectors old-off with Mining losing -2%, Banks , Pharm and O&G -1% and  Tobacco down a further 2.7%: Tobacco as a sector is now down over 40% in 2018. Utilities lost 3.6% with Mobile down 3.7%.

There was some green for Software, Hardware and Gen Retail with Support Services and FS all catching some bids

Oil sold-off yet another 1.1% while the metals were flat.

As the US is on holidays tomorrow, markets would normally be quiet, however, both Brexit and the Italian budget shenanigans continue to keep a wall of worry looming

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