Pre Close Update : HOT CPI Pops the Dollar: Gold below $2000: BTC drops $50K PDQ : Trim Some Risk
A hotter than expected US CPI number provided a catalyst to accelerate a bit of selling and which saw the dollar popping (see chart below) and sent gold below the $2000 mark for the first time since December 2023. CPI was expected at 3.7% but came in 3.9% for Jan with the core CPI 0.3% vs 0.2% expected. The practical terms higher inflation number places more doubts on the rate of change in interest rates later in 2024 and so impacts the cost of money and boots the dollar.
Continued dollar strength is likely to impact equities with a healthy pullback much overdue especially in the US
Given change in sentiment I have trimmed some of my longs, close some ITM and some ARB which has pulled back almost 10% today. Intend to keep an eye on both dollar and bonds following the initial reaction as sometimes overreaction can moderate once the market has digested the implications of the numbers
Oil above $82 and looking bullish for a move north
Copper finding support at previous channel resistance
Ones to Watch ARB on BTC $50K, TUI
ARB Argo Blockchain should continue north on bitcoin strength adding to the recent gains
TUI - open chart bullish update should add to yesterday's +5.6% rise, vol squeeze has fired on the daily
Pre Market- Eyes on US CPI and the Dollar: Bitcoin $50K
US markets closed in the red which is something of an anomaly these days as the dollar strengthened further on the eve of inflation figures today in the US.
Oil maintains bullish bias north of $82 while gold dipped to $2013 found some support but remains under pressure pending the direction of the dollar
Copper found support at the previous channel line resistance with platinum, palladium and silver all eking out some green on the day yesterday: this resulted in miners and especially precious metal miners having a good day yesterday as highlighted in the weekly wrap on Sunday
Bitcoin rallied further yesterday and clears $50,000 for the first time since 2022: I remain long ARB which gained a further 19% yesterday
US dollar showing strength in advance of inflation figures in the US today at 13:30 
Oil above $82 and looking bullish for a move north
Copper finding support at previous channel resistance
