» » Market Update Fri 09 Aug 19 Weekly Look-Back: Gold up almost 5%, Oil down almost 5%; Worst Week for UK Indices in 2019

Market Update Fri 09 Aug 19 Weekly Look-Back: Gold up almost 5%, Oil down almost 5%; Worst Week for UK Indices in 2019

  • Anyone long the UK markets will welcome this weekend after a tumultuous first full week of August and the worst one thus far in 2019. At the Wed lows the FTSE 100 was down 7.5% in a week, FTSE 250 -6%, AIM All-Share -7%. In the FTSE 350, O&G and Mining had lost over 10% each in the preceding 5 trading days: as two of the top three sectors, they account for over 20% of the NMX by capital and have a profound effect on market sentiment. Oil had fallen off a cliff dropping 15% in 5 days from $65.5 to $55.9 reversing almost all of the 2019 gains.
  • By contrast gold rallied 7.5% in the same period adding over $100. Gold is up almost 20% since June ’19. Finally, bitcoin, the much-maligned risk asset has broken out from lows of $3000 in April to highs of almost $14000 in July. Previously BTC had correlated with risk-on, bizarrely it now seems to be behaving as a proxy safe haven: an odd notion by any standards.
  •  These are big moves especially when overlaid on an increasingly worrying macro with global economic slowdown, negative yields, negative mortgage interest rates, a trade war and a Chinese Yuan at lows against USD not seen since 2008. Sprinkle this with whatever Brexit may throw into the mix and there is a significant wall of worry to scale. It seems likely that August and September will prove even more volatile than normal this year.  This does all make for good trading weather.
  • A lower than expected GDP for Q2 ’19 raised the spectre of recession and dampened the nascent rally in UK indices this am; significantly denting sterling which dropped over 0.5%.
    FTSE 100 -0.44%  FTSE 250 -0.12, AIM All-Share -0.04: TechMARK -0.3 GBP/USD -0.5%
  • China’s PBOC set a new low for the Yuan target vs USD adding to trade/currency worries.
  • Gold pulled back today from a high of 1507 to a low of 1494: Brent oil did rally off yesterday’s doji rising over 2.7% to touch the $59 level
  • Market sentiment saw the US VIX rise 20% above 20 while the Fear & Greed Index remains around 28 : the AAII weekly survey shows investors over 48% bearish, a marked shift from the normal 30.5% and a move of over 24% since last week.
  • Of the 1404 stocks monitored by runprofits, only 164 rose in the past week while 463 fell and 777 remain unchanged
Market Sentiment Dashboard
UK Weekly Indices CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE
This Week in One CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE
Today in One CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE
This Week in One CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGE
[userpro_mymessage]

Leave a Reply

avatar
  Subscribe  
Notify of